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Active Conflict — Iran-US War (Week 6)

Strait of Hormuz closed. Qatar LNG offline 3-5 years. SPR at historic lows. Data updates every 30 minutes.

Conflict Energy Impact

How the Iran-US conflict is reshaping energy markets — oil prices, supply disruptions, and the cost to every grid region.

Active Conflict — Iran-US War (Week 6)

Strait of Hormuz closed. Qatar LNG offline 3-5 years. SPR at historic lows. Data updates every 30 minutes.

Conflict Energy Impact

How the Iran-US conflict is reshaping energy markets — oil prices, supply disruptions, and the cost to every grid region.

Brent Crude

$138.21$/bbl

▲ 13.4%

WTI Crude

$114.58$/bbl

WTI-Brent Spread

$23.63$/bbl

Oil Volatility

83.9OVX

US Gasoline

$4.12$/gal

SPR Level

415.1M bbl

Geopolitical Risk

275.3GPR

Commodity Performance Since Conflict

All commodities rebased to 100 at Feb 28, 2026 (war start). Values above 100 = price increase.

Conflict Energy Premium

Multi-channel impact: gas-to-power cost change + oil passthrough via transport & peaker dispatch. Baselines from pre-war median prices (Jan 15 – Feb 27).

Avg Premium+$1.42/MWh

Avg Household+$51/mo

BPA+$2.15

Bonneville Power Administration

Gas channel$-0.00

Oil passthrough+$2.16

Gas: 0%

Household impact+$51/mo

NWMT+$2.10

NorthWestern Energy Montana

Gas channel$-0.06

Oil passthrough+$2.16

Gas: 2%

Household impact+$51/mo

CAISO+$1.88

California Independent System Operator

Gas channel$-0.28

Oil passthrough+$2.16

Gas: 12%

Household impact+$51/mo

SPP+$1.63

Southwest Power Pool

Gas channel$-0.53

Oil passthrough+$2.16

Gas: 23%

Household impact+$51/mo

TVA+$1.53

Tennessee Valley Authority

Gas channel$-0.62

Oil passthrough+$2.16

Gas: 27%

Household impact+$51/mo

ERCOT+$1.42

Electric Reliability Council of Texas

Gas channel$-0.73

Oil passthrough+$2.16

Gas: 32%

Household impact+$51/mo

MISO+$1.38

Midcontinent Independent System Operator

Gas channel$-0.77

Oil passthrough+$2.16

Gas: 34%

Household impact+$51/mo

DUKE+$1.37

Duke Energy Carolinas

Gas channel$-0.79

Oil passthrough+$2.16

Gas: 34%

Household impact+$51/mo

SOCO+$1.34

Southern Company

Gas channel$-0.82

Oil passthrough+$2.16

Gas: 35%

Household impact+$51/mo

PJM+$1.34

PJM Interconnection

Gas channel$-0.82

Oil passthrough+$2.16

Gas: 35%

Household impact+$51/mo

NYISO+$1.04

New York Independent System Operator

Gas channel$-1.11

Oil passthrough+$2.16

Gas: 48%

Household impact+$50/mo

ISONE+$1.02

ISO New England

Gas channel$-1.13

Oil passthrough+$2.16

Gas: 49%

Household impact+$50/mo

FPC+$0.24

Florida Power

Gas channel$-1.92

Oil passthrough+$2.16

Gas: 83%

Household impact+$50/mo

Oil passthrough estimates 5% of Brent crude increase transmits to electricity via fuel transport costs and peaker dispatch. Household impact combines electricity premium (900 kWh/mo) + gasoline increase (40 gal/mo). Brent crude: +96% from pre-war. Gasoline: +$1.24/gal.

Oil Prices

WTI & Brent crude benchmarks with geopolitical event annotations

Apr 5: Trump Deadline for Iranian Surrender ExpiresApr 4: European Natural Gas Prices Surge to 18-Month HighApr 3: Iran Retaliates with Strikes on Gulf Refinery InfrastructureApr 2: US Bombs B1 Bridge in Iran — First Civilian Infrastructure TargetApr 1: US Gasoline Surpasses $4/Gallon National AverageMar 30: Kuwait Desalination Plant Attacked — Water Crisis BeginsMar 27: IRGC Strikes Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi ArabiaMar 25: US SPR Falls Below 300M Barrels — Lowest Since 1984Mar 24: QatarEnergy Declares Force Majeure on All LNG ContractsMar 23: Trump Announces Pause on Strikes Against Iranian Energy InfrastructureMar 21: DOE Orders Emergency Coal Plant Life ExtensionsMar 19: Dubai Crude Hits Record $166/Barrel IntradayMar 18: Ras Laffan LNG Complex Confirmed DevastatedMar 14: OPEC+ Emergency Meeting — Saudi Pledges Maximum OutputMar 11: IEA Coordinates 400M Barrel Collective Strategic Reserve ReleaseMar 8: Brent Crude Crosses $100/BarrelMar 7: US Activates Strategic Petroleum Reserve Emergency ReleaseMar 5: IEA Declares Largest Supply Disruption in Oil Market HistoryMar 4: Strait of Hormuz Fully Closed to Commercial ShippingMar 3: Gulf State Oil and LNG Infrastructure Strikes ConfirmedMar 2: Iran Declares Strait of Hormuz ClosedMar 1: Iran Retaliates with Massive Missile and Drone BarrageFeb 28: Operation Epic Fury Begins

Natural Gas Futures Curve

Spot vs. NYMEX futures contracts (1-4 months)